U.S Retail sales decreased a seasonally adjusted -0.2% in June from May (revised -0.1%). The market was expecting a +0.1% rise. It’s the first back-to-back sales drop since July and August 2016.
The consumer-price index (CPI) was unchanged in June from May. Excluding the often-volatile categories of food and energy, core-CPI rose +0.1%.
If officials conclude the weakness is broader than a few one-off events, continued subdued readings on core-inflation could put pressure on the Fed’s rate-raise plan.
The Fed has signalled it will raise short-term interest rates once more this year and also begin to reduce the size of its balance sheet.
Fed funds are pricing a +40% chance of a Dec Fed hike.
USD remains under pressure against G10 (€1.1444, £1.2993, ¥112.52, C$1.2692). U.S 10-years -4 bps at +2.31%